http://www.car.org/tools/smart/archive/forecast/?version=2

The So. Lake Tahoe CA market has seen a stabilization of median prices over the past 12 months rounding in the end of the year at $319K.
This is particularly refreshing after many months of reported declines in pricing since 2007, additionally the number sf residences sold have continued to increase since mid-2008 from 374 homes in 2008 to 546 in 2010, a 30% increase over that period of time with a 14% increase year over year.

Unlike SLT when comparing the CAR sales data for the state of CA, we see median home prices on track for the forecasted 11.5% increase in 2010 and sales totals projected to be down by about 10%. National Assoc. of Realtors is still forecasting adjustments in markets but with a general stabilization of median home price in most of the markets and sales trending upwards.

What we are seeing is a corollary between price and sales; when prices go down sales go up…all things being equal (which never is of course). What we also are seeing that has consistently contributed to the increase in sales is the historically low fixed interest rates, hovering around 5% at this time.
Given the analysis of the historical data of NAR, CAR and STAR I’m forecasting for the 2011 SLT Real estate market a continuated stabilizing of the RE market with sales hovering at 600 sf homes and median home price possibly climbing slightly to $335,000 (5%) increase in price and sales
(approx.)

Contributing factors to this forecast is the data drawn from the CA market leading the bubble up and now out, having observed that the CA (and NV for that matter) market fell faster than the national market and in some sense the recovery, while cruel, is coming faster too (both state budget issues aside).
Other factors considered are the US and CA Economic outlooks which are forecasting stabilization in gdp, unemployment, disposable income, population growth and CPI. “Stable is good” after this wild ride.

Another important factor is the keep an eye on is “new homes starts vs.
inventory and housing needs. This will be converging on us soon (2012 per NAR’s Chief economist Lawrence Yun) as the demand for housing is unmet due to the slowdown of new housing starts, hard to believe after the lessons of overbuilding have hit us so hard. Lake Tahoe of course is an anomaly when the new starts stats come into play due to our “controlled housing starts market place”. There is talk that 2011 will not see the usual “limited” round of new building allocations due to the quagmire of the TRPA basin master plan. Remember supply and demand factors into our market place with this bit of news.

And the last bit of analysis for your attention is the current “absorption rate” we’re experiencing here in SLT which is hovering around
6.3 months at this time.
The absorption rate is the anticipated length of time it will take to absorb the unsold inventory of homes into a given market.
4-6 months inventory is considered to be a normal balanced market between buyers and sellers, fewer months is sellers’ market and more months are a buyers’ market. That said we’re in a normal market range, thankfully.
Buyers and sellers are able to negotiate sales with a civil tone and come to a mutually beneficial and agreeable price, although I must say it still feels a bit like a buyers’ market, probably because it has been for at least 30 months.

Consumer confidence will increase as these consistent numbers start to surface, we’ll emerge from our caves as our animal spirits start to create, re-invent and spend accordingly. Jobs will follow the cycle of prosperity and growth will emerge.

Voted the
“Best Homemade Pumpkin Pie”
by “Mom Bricker”…aka Deb’s mom

ENTER TO  WIN

Write us about your Best Tahoe
Thanksgiving experience (real or imagined)
and submit your 200 word experience to
us by  Tuesday Nov. 22nd.
At 3599 Lake Tahoe Blvd., Suite A
South Lake Tahoe, CA
or by email at
dhoward@realtordeb.com

The winner will receive “Moms” fresh
pumpkin pie for pick up at Deb
Howard & Co. on Nov. 23rd Wednesday

Presented By Deb Howard & Co. and Tahoe Beach & Ski Club

Halloween Costume Contest Winners!

Orbitz Recognized Lake Tahoe as No. 1 Ski Destination for Third Consecutive Year

Nov. 8, 2010 (South Lake Tahoe, Calif./Nev.) – Lake Tahoe South Shore (http://www. TahoeSouth.com) received more than a foot of fresh powder at the ski resorts and several inches at lake level in the last 24 hours. Lake Tahoe is recognized for its beauty, average snowfall exceeding 400 inches, crisp and clear air and abundant sun shine, which landed Tahoe the No. 1 spot for top U.S. ski destination for the third consecutive year by Orbitz Insider Ski Index.

The ranking for 2010 is based on hotel rooms and vacation package bookings on Orbitz.com, an online travel web site that includes information on national and international destinations. Travel accommodations predict the year’s most popular destinations based on customer bookings, and reveals where to find great savings. Other destinations trailing behind Lake Tahoe in the top ten include Colorado, Utah and Canada.

“The early season vibe is buzzing with anticipation for another banner year with the predictions of a burly La Nina,” said Carol Chaplin executive director of Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority “The recent snowfall and Orbitz ranking will help with our early bookings and season pass sales as we gear up for resort openings soon.”

The West Coast’s largest snowmaking system combined with the new snowfall will enable Heavenly Mountain Resort to open, Friday, Nov. 19, weather and conditions permitting. Kirkwood is projecting a tentative opening for Friday, Dec. 3 and Sierra-at-Tahoe Resort will open when conditions allow.

For the most up-to-date information on snowfall, mountain base depths and road conditions in South Lake Tahoe, check area ski resort web sites and cams or call snow phones:

Heavenly Web Cams – 775-586-7000
Sierra-at-Tahoe Web Cams – 530-659-7475
Kirkwood Web Cams – 209-258-3000
Heavenly Village Web Cams

A fleet of city and state snow removal vehicles around the Lake Tahoe Basin keep the roads clear and safe for travel. Last season, road conditions via Hwy 50 didn’t prohibit winter enthusiasts from being able to access South Lake Tahoe resorts. Caltrans has up-to-the-minute California road conditions at www.dot.ca.gov or 1-800-427-ROAD (7623) or 916-445-7623. For road conditions in Nevada, contact the Nevada Department of Transportation at www.nevadadot.com or 877-687-6237. Travelers can also get up-to-the-minute online road information and more on their smart phones at NV.mobi.

Everything needed for an affordable winter vacation is just a click away. Deals on activities, dining and lodging abound on www.TahoeSouth.com, which can save travelers hundreds of dollars.

MontBleu Resort Casino & Spa is celebrating the early season snow with buy one night get one free, valid, Nov. 8 – Nov. 24 and Nov.28 – Dec 16, Sunday – Thursday with rates starting at $59. Details: www.montbleuresort.com.

Harrah’s Tahoe Winter Getaway includes a night stay, $50 per day for dining and 2 for 1 Improv tickets, starting at $118 per night. Packages valid, Nov. 18, 2010 through April 30, 2011. Details: www.harrahstahoe.com.

The Ski/Snowboard Package at Embassy Suites Lake Tahoe – Hotel & Ski Resort includes two lift tickets per day to Sierra-at-Tahoe, $17 lunch voucher per lift ticket along with spacious two-room suite, complimentary cooked-to-order breakfast and evening manager’s reception at Embassy. Details: www.embassytahoe.com.

For additional packages, real time updates on events, promotions, conditions and what’s happening in South Lake Tahoe, The Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority is Facebook: www.facebook.com/TahoeSouth, Twitter: www.twitter.com/SouthShoreTahoe, and YouTube: www.youtube.com/LTVA. For information about Lake Tahoe South Shore, call 1-800-AT-TAHOE (1-800-288-2463) or visit www.TahoeSouth.com.

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Heavenly3

The West Coast’s largest snowmaking system combined with the new snowfall will enable Heavenly Mountain Resort to open, Friday, Nov. 19, weather and conditions permitting. Credit: Heavenly Mountain Resort.

webNob-Hill-Nov-8-at-Sierra

South Shore ski resorts welcome winter with more than a foot of snowfall in the last 24 hours. Credit: Sierra-at-Tahoe Resort.

Heavenly

Lake Tahoe South Shore was recognized as the No. 1 Ski Destination by Orbitz for its beauty and deep snowpack. Credit: Heavenly Mountain Resort.

MEDIA: High res photos: Winter click “enlarge” right click “save as”. To obtain video as fresh as the powder throughout the season contact: Phil Weidinger or Jenn Boyd, Weidinger Public Relations, 775-588-2412 or jennifer@weidingerpr.com.

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About the Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority
Set at 6,300’, South Lake Tahoe combines the distinctive appeal of two worlds: spectacular natural beauty and a modern tourism destination. That ageless splendor and an emerging economic diversity toward health and wellness, green business practices and sustainability continue to define its inimitable personality. For information about lodging, recreation and family packages at South Shore Lake Tahoe, call the Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority, 1-800-AT-TAHOE (1-800-288-2463) or log onto www.TahoeSouth.com.

November 12th, 2010 at Harrahs Taho

BUY TICKETS AT DEB HOWARD & CO.

Summer heats up our real estate market

A Market to Table Event Celebrating The Sierra Nevada Region

A Market to table event celebrating the Sierra Nevada Region